1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Avnet-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Magdeburg at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.90 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 0–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% versus SV Darmstadt 98 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 64% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.836 / defence 1.374 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.358. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output up. 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 59 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 59.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.70 | Draw 4.36 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.52 / 2.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.836 / def 1.374 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.121 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
2.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 27% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (0.84) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.12x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 59 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
27%
3.70
23%
4.36
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.61
2.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.10
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
3%
29.99
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 2.09 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 21W 13D 25L from 59 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 17L across 59 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.53 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 7W 8D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 6W 11D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.75 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 in 63%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.00 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 SV Darmstadt 98 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
3
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 72% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 76% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 72% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 1-1 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.37 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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