1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fortuna Düsseldorf — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Avnet-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.00 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Fortuna Düsseldorf have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 2 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 59% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 65% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.975 / defence 1.252 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.709 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.304. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 63 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 63.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 43% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.34 | Draw 3.48 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 43% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.975 / def 1.252 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.709 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Magdeburg 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 43% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 63 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.48
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.16 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 23W 14D 26L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 23W 15D 25L from 63 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.32 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 31 home games (8W 9D 14L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 11W 7D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.33 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.06 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 52%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 55% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 55% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.16 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 43% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 65%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.32 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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