SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Magdeburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in SC Paderborn 07's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 4 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The historical record gives SC Paderborn 07 a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and 1. FC Magdeburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | 1. FC Magdeburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.13 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.203 / defence 1.024 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.307. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 SC Paderborn 07 games / 62 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.12. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.13 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.203 / def 1.024 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 4 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (7 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 3W | Draws 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.35x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
45%
2.21
22%
4.47
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.93
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.92
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
12%
8.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
4%
26.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.80 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 16D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.34 PPG from 62 outings (23W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 17W 5D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.61 points per game from 31 outings (15W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.73 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 31W 16D 15L in their last 62 games (1.76 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 23W 14D 25L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.81 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
4
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for SC Paderborn 07, 64% for 1. FC Magdeburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 64% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.13 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.35 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.