1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and 1. FC Magdeburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 62% | 1. FC Magdeburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.983 / defence 0.987 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.383 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.320. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 1. FC Nürnberg games / 64 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.94 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.983 / def 0.987 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.383 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.98x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.38x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.18
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.74
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.80 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 14D 26L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.34 PPG from 64 outings (24W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.34 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.56 points per game from 32 outings (15W 5D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.75 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.59 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 53%, 1. FC Magdeburg 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 66% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 66% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 66% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 35%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.