🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena this season.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

SC Paderborn 07's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 2.10 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Paderborn 07 have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Hannover 96.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Hannover 96 winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 57% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 56% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.854 / defence 0.882 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.045 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.281. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Hannover 96 games / 63 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hannover 96 29% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 38%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | SC Paderborn 07 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights