Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Braunschweig face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hertha BSC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hertha BSC have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hertha BSC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 59% versus Hertha BSC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and Hertha BSC 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.782 / defence 1.080 | Hertha BSC attack 1.420 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.279. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 63 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 55%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 / Hertha BSC 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.782 / def 1.080 | Hertha BSC attack 1.420 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Hertha BSC xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 21% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 4W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.78) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
21%
4.87
25%
4.03
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.12
1.96
Hertha BSC xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
3%
34.65
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.96 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 18D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.44 PPG from 63 outings (25W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.10 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 11W 10D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.74 points per game from 31 outings (16W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 17W 18D 28L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.39 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
From 7 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 58%, Hertha BSC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 68% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 68% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and Hertha BSC 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Hertha BSC attack 1.42 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 55%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, Hertha BSC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.