🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SV Elversberg host Karlsruher SC at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SV Elversberg at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Karlsruher SC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Karlsruher SC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Elversberg 1.70 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SV Elversberg, 3 for Karlsruher SC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with SV Elversberg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 56% and Karlsruher SC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 57% | Karlsruher SC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.85 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.995 / defence 0.920 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.873 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.325. Data: 63 SV Elversberg games / 63 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 55% | Draw 25% | Karlsruher SC 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Karlsruher SC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | Karlsruher SC 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights