Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Guingamp at Stade Auguste Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Table Standings
Guingamp are 11th in Ligue 2 with 40 points from 34 games.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.23 xG and Guingamp 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 0 Sochaux games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sochaux 32% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Auguste Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Managers: Sochaux (V. Hognon) | Guingamp (S. Ripoll) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Guingamp away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 32% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sochaux 1.23 / Guingamp 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Sochaux vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Stade Auguste Bonal.
Where is Sochaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Guingamp part of?
Sochaux vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sochaux and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Guingamp away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Sochaux vs Guingamp?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture