Saint Etienne 4-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grenoble make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Grenoble (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.10 for Grenoble. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 44% versus Grenoble 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Grenoble 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.09 xG and Grenoble 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.383 / defence 0.951 | Grenoble attack 1.084 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.082. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Saint Etienne games / 36 Grenoble games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 60% | Draw 21% | Grenoble 19%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Grenoble 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | Grenoble 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 60% | Draw 21% | Grenoble 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Saint Etienne 2.09 / Grenoble 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.383 / def 0.951 | Grenoble attack 1.084 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Grenoble xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Grenoble kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Grenoble?
Saint Etienne 4 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Grenoble part of?
Saint Etienne vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 60% chance of winning, Grenoble a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Saint Etienne and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Grenoble?
Record (6 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 3 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Grenoble in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Grenoble's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (1.08x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.72
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.21
1.11
Grenoble xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
2%
42.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.11 for Grenoble, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Grenoble?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 7D 11L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (8W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.97 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 games (1.69 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 8W 16D 12L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Grenoble away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.00 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Grenoble in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 22 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Grenoble?
From 7 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Grenoble have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Grenoble?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 44%, Grenoble 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Grenoble). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Grenoble in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Grenoble?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Saint Etienne's games and 67% of Grenoble's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Saint Etienne's matches and 50% of Grenoble's.
Do Saint Etienne and Grenoble tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Grenoble 4-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 2.09 xG and Grenoble 1.11 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.38 / defence 0.95 against Grenoble attack 1.08 / defence 1.33, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 60% | Draw 21% | Grenoble 19%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Grenoble 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Grenoble's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.