Boulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade de la Libération — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RED Star FC 93 are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Boulogne, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 47% versus RED Star FC 93 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 44% | RED Star FC 93 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 0.92 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.881 / defence 1.026 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.027 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.114. Data: 36 Boulogne games / 35 RED Star FC 93 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Boulogne 28% | Draw 32% | RED Star FC 93 41%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | RED Star FC 93 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 50% | RED Star FC 93 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 28% | Draw 32% | RED Star FC 93 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Boulogne 0.92 / RED Star FC 93 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.881 / def 1.026 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.027 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.18
RED Star FC 93 xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Boulogne 1 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 28% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.88x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
28%
3.60
32%
3.17
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.10
1.18
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.18 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boulogne's recent record stands at 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 9L across 36 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RED Star FC 93 by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boulogne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Boulogne have managed 4W 4D 9L from 17 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 9W 3D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boulogne are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 16W 11D 9L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.94 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Boulogne or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Boulogne's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
2
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 59%, RED Star FC 93 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Boulogne) and 47% (RED Star FC 93). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 47%; Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Boulogne's recent matches and 35% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Boulogne's matches and 47% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 3, as Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.92 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.18 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 28% | Draw 32% | RED Star FC 93 41%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 44%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.