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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Boulogne travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Boulogne's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.00 (Boulogne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Table Context

The standings have Guingamp (11th, 40 pts) 4 places above Boulogne (15th, 36 pts) — a 4-point gap in Ligue 2.

On home turf, Guingamp's Ligue 2 record reads 6W 5D 6L this term. Away from home, Boulogne have posted 5W 6D 6L in Ligue 2 this season.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Boulogne trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Boulogne 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.06 xG and Boulogne 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Boulogne attack 0.879 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Boulogne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Boulogne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Boulogne 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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