Guingamp 3-3 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Nantes travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nantes have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Guingamp) versus 0.60 (Nantes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nantes in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 47% versus Nantes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 53% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.40 xG and Nantes 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.953 / defence 0.880 | Nantes attack 0.825 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.114. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Guingamp games / 3 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Nantes 5.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 20% | Nantes 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Guingamp 1.40 / Nantes 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.953 / def 0.880 | Nantes attack 0.825 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Nantes xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nantes kick off?
Guingamp vs Nantes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Nantes?
Guingamp 3 - 3 Nantes.
Where is Guingamp vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nantes part of?
Guingamp vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 50% chance of winning, Nantes a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Nantes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.95) and Nantes's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.32
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.21
0.81
Nantes xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.81 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 9D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes's form line: 5W 8D 23L from 36 games, 0.64 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Nantes have gone 2W 5D 10L from 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.89 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nantes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Nantes have gone 5W 8D 23L in their last 36 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nantes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.47 PPG; Nantes away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Nantes runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Guingamp
1
Draws
0
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nantes?
From 1 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Nantes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Guingamp 3-3 Nantes.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 29%, Nantes 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Guingamp) and 53% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Nantes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Guingamp's recent matches and 47% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Guingamp's recent games and 53% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Nantes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Nantes in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Nantes share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 4, as Guingamp and Nantes drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.40 xG and Nantes 0.81 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nantes outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Nantes attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Nantes 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 53%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.