Rodez 3-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Grenoble meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grenoble (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rodez's favour (1.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Grenoble in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rodez 0W, Grenoble 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Grenoble — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 58% versus Grenoble 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 46% | Grenoble 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.41 xG and Grenoble 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.166 / defence 1.079 | Grenoble attack 0.893 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Data: 65 Rodez games / 66 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 27%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Grenoble 3.70. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Grenoble lead the H2H ledger, but Rodez carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 70% | Grenoble 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Rodez 1.41 / Grenoble 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.166 / def 1.079 | Grenoble attack 0.893 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Grenoble xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Grenoble kick off?
Rodez vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Rodez 3 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Rodez vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Grenoble part of?
Rodez vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Grenoble a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rodez and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 2W.
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.17) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.89x) against Rodez's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.45
1.04
Grenoble xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Rodez and 1.04 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 23D 22L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.38 PPG from 65 outings (24W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rodez against 1.38 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 10W 12D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (9W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.05 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 23D 22L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 24W 18D 23L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Grenoble away?
Rodez's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.31 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Rodez or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Grenoble in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
2
Draws
5
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Grenoble have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Rodez 0-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 62%, Grenoble 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 38% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 31%; Rodez have failed to score in 28% of games; Grenoble in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Rodez's recent matches and 31% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Grenoble tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Grenoble 3-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.41 xG and Grenoble 1.04 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Grenoble attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 27%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 46%, Grenoble 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Grenoble's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.28 PPG, Grenoble 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.