Bastia 0-4 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Bastia take on Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 0.70 PPG clear of Bastia in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bastia have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Saint Etienne in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bastia 1W, Saint Etienne 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Saint Etienne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 38% | Saint Etienne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.74 xG and Saint Etienne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.863 / defence 0.895 | Saint Etienne attack 0.911 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Bastia games / 66 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Saint Etienne 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Saint Etienne 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Bastia 0.74 / Saint Etienne 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.863 / def 0.895 | Saint Etienne attack 0.911 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Saint Etienne xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Bastia 0 - 4 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bastia vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 28% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Bastia and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Bastia and Saint Etienne in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.91x) against Bastia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
36%
2.75
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.62
0.88
Saint Etienne xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Bastia and 0.88 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 26W 16D 24L from 66 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 21L across 66 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Bastia against 1.53 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 18W 7D 7L from 32 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.44 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Saint Etienne in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 26W 16D 24L in their last 66 games (1.42 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 28W 17D 21L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bastia's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.91 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Bastia or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Saint Etienne 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bastia) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 59% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bastia's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Bastia 0-4 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.74 xG and Saint Etienne 0.88 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 0.91 / defence 0.75, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 28% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 36%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 38%, Saint Etienne 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.42 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.