Angers 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Raymond Kopa plays host to Angers versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond Kopa: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond Kopa. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Amiens (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Amiens's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Angers, 1.50 for Amiens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Angers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Amiens in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Angers, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 4–1 with Angers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 48% versus Amiens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 54% | Amiens 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.26 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.217 / defence 1.049 | Amiens attack 0.776 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Data: 28 Angers games / 66 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 25%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Angers 30% | Amiens 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Angers 1.26 / Amiens 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.217 / def 1.049 | Amiens attack 0.776 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Angers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Amiens xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Amiens kick off?
Angers vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Amiens?
Angers 1 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Angers vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Amiens part of?
Angers vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 44% chance of winning, Amiens a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Angers and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Angers and Amiens in?
Angers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 1.22x the league average against Amiens's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.78x) against Angers's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.29
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Angers xG
Total xG
2.13
0.88
Amiens xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Angers and 0.88 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 11D 36L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.30 PPG from 66 outings (22W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Angers against 1.30 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 14W 4D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Angers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Amiens in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 11D 36L in their last 66 games (1.03 PPG), while Amiens have gone 22W 20D 24L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Amiens away?
Angers's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.44 PPG; Amiens away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Angers or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Angers
0
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Amiens?
From 2 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Amiens have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Angers 1-3 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 59%, Amiens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Angers) and 38% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Amiens in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Angers's recent matches and 44% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Angers's recent games and 38% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Amiens tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Amiens in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Angers 1-3 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.26 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against Amiens attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 30% | Amiens 25%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Amiens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 54%, Amiens 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.03 PPG, Amiens 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.