Estac Troyes 2-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Rodez at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.50 PPG versus Rodez's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rodez in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rodez 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 64% and Rodez 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Rodez 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.52 xG and Rodez 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.137 / defence 1.127 | Rodez attack 1.191 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Data: 29 Estac Troyes games / 66 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 26% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 26% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Estac Troyes 1.52 / Rodez 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.137 / def 1.127 | Rodez attack 1.191 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Rodez kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Estac Troyes 2 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Rodez part of?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 38% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Estac Troyes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.83
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.00
1.48
Rodez xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.48 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 12W 23D 31L from 66 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 22L across 66 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 8W 13D 12L from 33 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 10W 11D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 23D 31L in their last 66 games (0.89 PPG), while Rodez have gone 21W 23D 22L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.12 PPG; Rodez away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rodez have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 67%, Rodez 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estac Troyes) and 46% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 27% of games; Rodez in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Estac Troyes's games and 54% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 46% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Rodez tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rodez in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Estac Troyes 2-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.52 xG and Rodez 1.48 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Rodez attack 1.19 / defence 1.14, drawn from 29/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 26% | Rodez 36%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 56%, Rodez 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.