Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bordeaux have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bordeaux have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bordeaux are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Bordeaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Bordeaux 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 49% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.02 xG and Bordeaux 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.710 / defence 1.130 | Bordeaux attack 1.067 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Annecy's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Annecy games / 65 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Bordeaux 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 50% | Bordeaux 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Annecy 1.02 / Bordeaux 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.710 / def 1.130 | Bordeaux attack 1.067 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bordeaux xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bordeaux kick off?
Annecy vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Annecy 3 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Annecy vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bordeaux part of?
Annecy vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 29% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bordeaux?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 2W.
What form are Annecy and Bordeaux in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.71x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.07x) against Annecy's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
29%
3.50
29%
3.41
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.32
1.30
Bordeaux xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Annecy and 1.30 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 17W 21D 27L from 65 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 18L across 65 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bordeaux by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.26 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 21D 27L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 30W 17D 18L in their last 65 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bordeaux away?
Annecy's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.34 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Bordeaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 38%, Bordeaux 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 47% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 38% of games; Bordeaux in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 47% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bordeaux 3-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.02 xG and Bordeaux 1.30 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.71 / defence 1.13 against Bordeaux attack 1.07 / defence 1.26, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 49%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.