Grenoble 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 39%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Grenoble vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Grenoble have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Grenoble are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Grenoble, 1 for Guingamp and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Grenoble 2–2 Guingamp — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 36% versus Guingamp 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 36% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.072 / defence 1.067 | Guingamp attack 0.957 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Data: built from Grenoble's last 67 games and Guingamp's last 67.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 39% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.59 | Draw 3.37 | Guingamp 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grenoble 50% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 39% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Grenoble 1.27 / Guingamp 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.072 / def 1.067 | Guingamp attack 0.957 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Guingamp xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grenoble vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 39% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.07) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grenoble's last 67 games and Guingamp's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.37
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.40
1.13
Guingamp xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grenoble vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.13 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 19D 24L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.45 PPG from 67 outings (26W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.36 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 15W 10D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.31 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
Grenoble (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grenoble
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Grenoble vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 24W 19D 24L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 19D 22L in their last 67 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Guingamp away?
Grenoble's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.67 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Guingamp in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Grenoble.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Grenoble vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 39%, Guingamp 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Grenoble and 36% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp in 36%; Grenoble have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grenoble vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grenoble and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Grenoble's recent matches and 48% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grenoble and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Grenoble's recent games and 36% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Grenoble's recent matches and 67% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Guingamp finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.13 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 39% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 36%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.36 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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