Rodez 3-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rodez at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Amiens encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Rodez and Amiens meet at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Rodez (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Rodez's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Amiens have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Rodez's 2.20 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Amiens's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rodez's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) — Rodez have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rodez, 3 for Amiens and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Rodez 1–2 Amiens — a Amiens win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 70% and Amiens 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 55% | Amiens 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.55 xG and Amiens 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.021 / defence 0.849 | Amiens attack 0.879 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. Amiens's defence rating of 1.290 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 64 games and Amiens's last 64.

Result probabilities: Rodez 52% | Draw 29% | Amiens 19%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.93 | Draw 3.41 | Amiens 5.34. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rodez 80% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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