Reims 3-2 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Reims take on RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reims welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reims stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reims's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RED Star FC 93's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.30 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Reims's 30% BTTS rate and RED Star FC 93's 30% (from Reims's last 10 home games and RED Star FC 93's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Reims have won 0, RED Star FC 93 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Reims 0–0 RED Star FC 93 — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 39% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus RED Star FC 93 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | RED Star FC 93 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.83 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.805 / defence 0.836 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.944 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.169. Data: built from Reims's last 30 games and RED Star FC 93's last 63.
Result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 37% | RED Star FC 93 34%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.46 | Draw 2.69 | RED Star FC 93 2.95. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and RED Star FC 93's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 30% (last 10 home games) | RED Star FC 93 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 37% | RED Star FC 93 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Reims 0.83 / RED Star FC 93 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.805 / def 0.836 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.944 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.92
RED Star FC 93 xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Reims vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Reims vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Reims 3 - 2 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Reims vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Reims vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 29% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Reims and RED Star FC 93 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Reims vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.81) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 30 games and RED Star FC 93's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
37%
2.69
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Reims xG
Total xG
1.76
0.92
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 15.9 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Reims and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Reims and 0.92 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 19W 21D 23L from 63 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 21L across 63 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.24 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Reims (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Current Season
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
❓ Reims vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Reims and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 21D 23L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 22W 20D 21L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.27 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Reims or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Reims have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Reims won RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 2, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reims and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and RED Star FC 93?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 47%, RED Star FC 93 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Reims) and 43% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 33%; Reims have failed to score in 33% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Reims's recent matches and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Reims's recent games and 43% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Reims's recent matches and 67% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat RED Star FC 93 3-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.83 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 29% | Draw 37% | RED Star FC 93 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, RED Star FC 93 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.24 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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