Reims 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Reims have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Amiens have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Amiens have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Reims's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Amiens's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Reims, 0 for Amiens and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2025, ended Reims 2–2 Amiens — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 49% versus Amiens 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 46% | Amiens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.58 xG and Amiens 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.082 / defence 0.838 | Amiens attack 0.941 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.192. Amiens's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reims's projected output up. Data: built from Reims's last 23 games and Amiens's last 57.
Result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.91 | Draw 3.97 | Amiens 4.46. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Reims 1.58 / Amiens 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.082 / def 0.838 | Amiens attack 0.941 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Reims (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Amiens xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Reims vs Amiens kick off?
Reims vs Amiens kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Amiens?
Reims 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Reims vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Amiens part of?
Reims vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 52% chance of winning, Amiens a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reims and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Reims vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.08x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.94x) against Reims's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 23 games and Amiens's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.97
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Reims xG
Total xG
2.52
0.94
Amiens xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
5%
21.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Reims and 0.94 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Reims have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 16D 22L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 19W 8D 30L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Reims against 1.14 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 6D 11L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 6W 3D 19L from their last 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.16 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Reims vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Amiens in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 8D 30L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Amiens away?
Reims's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.39 PPG; Amiens away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Reims or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Amiens in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Reims and Amiens, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reims
2
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Amiens?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 0, Amiens have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Reims 0-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Reims) and 54% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 29% of games; Amiens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Reims's recent matches and 75% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.58 xG and Amiens 0.94 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 52% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.28 PPG, Amiens 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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