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Poisson model favours Estac Troyes (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Amiens face Estac Troyes.

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Match Analysis

Amiens host Estac Troyes at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Amiens — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade de la Licorne, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Estac Troyes away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estac Troyes — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Estac Troyes have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Amiens's 0 victories.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Estac Troyes winning.

It is worth noting that Estac Troyes have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Amiens in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Estac Troyes 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Estac Troyes 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.073 / defence 1.411 | Estac Troyes attack 0.794 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.167. Data: 58 Amiens games / 58 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 60% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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