RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RED Star FC 93 face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PAU travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
RED Star FC 93 — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, PAU have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RED Star FC 93 at 1.40 PPG versus PAU's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of RED Star FC 93's games and 60% of PAU's (from RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 2 for PAU and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended RED Star FC 93 3–0 PAU — a RED Star FC 93 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 48% | PAU 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and PAU 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.022 / defence 1.086 | PAU attack 0.990 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. PAU's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RED Star FC 93's projected output up. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 54 games and PAU's last 55.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 42% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.41 | Draw 3.89 | PAU 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 70% (last 10 home games) | PAU 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 42% | Draw 26% | PAU 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG RED Star FC 93 1.44 / PAU 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.022 / def 1.086 | PAU attack 0.990 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAU xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs PAU FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 3 PAU.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 42% chance of winning, PAU a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RED Star FC 93 vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (1.02) and PAU's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 54 games and PAU's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.89
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.69
1.25
PAU xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.25 for PAU, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 18D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (18W 18D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.33 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 9W 9D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.24 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
PAU
Blended
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or PAU away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.38 PPG; PAU away: 1.08 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won PAU 4-1 RED Star FC 93.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 58%, PAU 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 58% (PAU).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and PAU matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RED Star FC 93's games and 62% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RED Star FC 93 and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 58% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 73% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat RED Star FC 93 0-3 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PAU outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 42% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, PAU 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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