RED Star FC 93 1-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as RED Star FC 93 take on Montpellier.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Bauer plays host to RED Star FC 93 versus Montpellier in Ligue 2 (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
RED Star FC 93's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Montpellier have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Montpellier's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.60 for Montpellier. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended RED Star FC 93 1–1 Montpellier — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Montpellier 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Montpellier 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.94 xG and Montpellier 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.107 / defence 1.057 | Montpellier attack 0.711 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Montpellier bring a tight defence (rating 0.704, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling RED Star FC 93's projected output down. Montpellier's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 66 games and Montpellier's last 33.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.15 | Draw 2.76 | Montpellier 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Montpellier's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 50% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG RED Star FC 93 0.94 / Montpellier 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.107 / def 1.057 | Montpellier attack 0.711 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Montpellier xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 32% chance of winning, Montpellier a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.71x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 66 games and Montpellier's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
36%
2.76
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
1.88
0.94
Montpellier xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.94 for Montpellier, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 24W 20D 22L from 66 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 37L across 66 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RED Star FC 93 by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 13W 11D 9L from their last 33 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 7W 4D 22L across their last 33 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.94 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 24W 20D 22L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 18W 11D 37L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Montpellier away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.52 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.76 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Montpellier in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
2
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Montpellier 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 54%, Montpellier 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RED Star FC 93) and 27% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Montpellier in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 21% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 27% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 58% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 34, as RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.94 xG and Montpellier 0.94 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Montpellier attack 0.71 / defence 0.70, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Montpellier 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Montpellier's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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