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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Guingamp's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 2, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 41% | Guingamp 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.917 / defence 1.000 | Guingamp attack 0.975 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Clermont Foot games / 67 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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