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Poisson model rates Annecy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Annecy — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.90 PPG versus Rodez's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rodez in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rodez, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Annecy.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rodez have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Rodez in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Rodez 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 45% | Rodez 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Rodez 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.215 / defence 0.806 | Rodez attack 0.956 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Data: 67 Annecy games / 67 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 31% | Rodez 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 60% | Rodez 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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