Reims 5-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Reims, 1.10 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 39% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | PAU 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.62 xG and PAU 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.951 / defence 0.922 | PAU attack 0.999 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Reims games / 67 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 4.00. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Reims 40% | PAU 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 28% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Reims 1.62 / PAU 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.951 / def 0.922 | PAU attack 0.999 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Reims (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.16
PAU xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs PAU kick off?
Reims vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs PAU?
Reims 5 - 3 PAU.
Where is Reims vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs PAU part of?
Reims vs PAU is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 46% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Reims and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Reims and PAU in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.95x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.00x) against Reims's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.54
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Reims xG
Total xG
2.77
1.16
PAU xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
19.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Reims and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Reims and 1.16 for PAU, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims come into this having played 67 games, going 21W 23D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.30 PPG from 67 outings (22W 21D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Reims against 1.30 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Reims's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (9W 11D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and PAU in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 23D 23L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while PAU have gone 22W 21D 24L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or PAU away?
Reims's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.36 PPG; PAU away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Reims or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reims
0
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and PAU?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, PAU have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Reims 5-3 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, PAU 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Reims) and 61% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Reims's recent matches and 58% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Reims's recent games and 61% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and PAU tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PAU in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat PAU 5-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.62 xG and PAU 1.16 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against PAU attack 1.00 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 28% | PAU 25%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, PAU 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.28 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.