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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Relegation round - Quarter-finals as RED Star FC 93 welcome Rodez to Stade Bauer. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rodez have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG, Rodez 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Rodez and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Rodez in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RED Star FC 93 56% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 47% | Rodez 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.46 xG and Rodez 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.292. Data: 0 RED Star FC 93 games / 0 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 41% | Draw 28% | Rodez 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 70% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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