Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Auxerre at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Quevilly stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Quevilly's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Quevilly's games and 60% of Auxerre's (from Quevilly's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Quevilly, 2 for Auxerre and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Quevilly 2–3 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 48% | Auxerre 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Quevilly surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Auxerre surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Quevilly recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.83 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.788 / defence 1.039 | Auxerre attack 1.035 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Quevilly's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Quevilly's last 69 games and Auxerre's last 31.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.29 | Draw 3.13 | Auxerre 2.24. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Quevilly's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Quevilly 60% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Quevilly 0.83 / Auxerre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.788 / def 1.039 | Auxerre attack 1.035 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Auxerre xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Auxerre kick off?
Quevilly vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Quevilly 4 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Quevilly vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Auxerre part of?
Quevilly vs Auxerre is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 23% chance of winning, Auxerre a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Quevilly and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Quevilly vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.79x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 69 games and Auxerre's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
23%
4.29
32%
3.13
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.08
1.25
Auxerre xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.25 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 17W 28D 24L from 69 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 23L across 69 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.14 PPG, Auxerre on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 8W 15D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 11W 9D 14L across their last 34 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
Quevilly (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Quevilly vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 23L in their last 69 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.15 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Auxerre in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Auxerre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 62%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Quevilly) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Quevilly's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Quevilly and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Quevilly's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Quevilly's recent matches and 76% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Auxerre 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Auxerre 4-3 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.83 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Auxerre attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 48%, Auxerre 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.14 PPG, Auxerre 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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