Dunkerque 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
Guingamp (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Dunkerque. A 0.80 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dunkerque have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Guingamp in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dunkerque, 2 for Guingamp and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Guingamp 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Guingamp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.84 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.784 / defence 1.195 | Guingamp attack 0.846 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Dunkerque games / 69 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Guingamp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Guingamp 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Dunkerque 0.84 / Guingamp 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.784 / def 1.195 | Guingamp attack 0.846 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Guingamp kick off?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Dunkerque vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Guingamp part of?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, Guingamp a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dunkerque and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.78x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.85x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
25%
4.03
33%
3.04
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.01
1.17
Guingamp xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.17 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 10W 8D 13L from 31 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 9L across 31 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.42 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 4W 3D 9L from 16 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 6W 5D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 games (1.23 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 9L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.94 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Guingamp in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Dunkerque) and 38% (Guingamp) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dunkerque) and 38% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 44%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Guingamp in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 38% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 38% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.84 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 42%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Guingamp 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.23 PPG, Guingamp 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.