Ajaccio 2-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ajaccio welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Michel-Moretti in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ajaccio have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajaccio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Saint Etienne stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Saint Etienne away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Ajaccio's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ajaccio's 30% BTTS rate and Saint Etienne's 10% (from Ajaccio's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Ajaccio 0–0 Saint Etienne — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 35% versus Saint Etienne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 45% | Saint Etienne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.72 xG and Saint Etienne 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.920 / defence 0.927 | Saint Etienne attack 1.145 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.170. Saint Etienne bring a tight defence (rating 0.671, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ajaccio's projected output down. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 31 games and Saint Etienne's last 69.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 4.95 | Draw 3.09 | Saint Etienne 2.11. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajaccio's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 30% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Ajaccio 0.72 / Saint Etienne 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.920 / def 0.927 | Saint Etienne attack 1.145 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Ajaccio 2 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne part of?
Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 20% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajaccio and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajaccio's last 31 games and Saint Etienne's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.09
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.96
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
6%
17.15
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 17.5 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.24 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 17W 14D 38L from 69 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 21L across 69 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajaccio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 12W 8D 14L from their last 34 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 13W 10D 11L across their last 34 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Ajaccio (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajaccio
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 14D 38L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 31W 17D 21L in their last 69 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.29 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajaccio have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Ajaccio 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 29%, Saint Etienne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ajaccio) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 35%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajaccio and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 56% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ajaccio's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 65% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.72 xG and Saint Etienne 1.24 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 0.67, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ajaccio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 45%, Saint Etienne 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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