Laval 0-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 1.30 PPG, Annecy 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Laval register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Annecy in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Laval, 0 for Annecy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 52% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 49% | Annecy 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.11 xG and Annecy 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.929 / defence 1.294 | Annecy attack 1.206 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Annecy have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Laval games / 69 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53%. Fair-value odds: Laval 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 1.89. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 90% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Laval 1.11 / Annecy 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.929 / def 1.294 | Annecy attack 1.206 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Annecy (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Annecy xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 0 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 22% chance of winning, Annecy a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Laval and Annecy in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.93) and Annecy's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
22%
4.56
25%
3.95
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Laval xG
Total xG
2.92
1.81
Annecy xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
4%
27.87
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Laval and 1.81 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 69 games, going 27W 14D 28L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.17 PPG from 69 outings (20W 21D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 14W 7D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.94 points per game from 34 outings (7W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 27W 14D 28L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Laval's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Annecy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Laval) and 59% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Laval's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Laval and Annecy tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Annecy in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Laval 0-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.11 xG and Annecy 1.81 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Annecy attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 49%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.