Concarneau 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Concarneau welcome Quevilly to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Concarneau stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Concarneau's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Concarneau) versus 1.40 (Quevilly). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Concarneau register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Quevilly in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Concarneau, 0 for Quevilly and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Concarneau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 38% versus Quevilly 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 44% | Quevilly 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.24 xG and Quevilly 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.952 / defence 1.496 | Quevilly attack 1.206 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Quevilly have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Concarneau games / 70 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 21% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 57%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Quevilly 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 60% | Quevilly 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 21% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Concarneau 1.24 / Quevilly 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.952 / def 1.496 | Quevilly attack 1.206 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Quevilly xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Quevilly kick off?
Concarneau vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Quevilly?
Concarneau 0 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Concarneau vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Concarneau vs Quevilly part of?
Concarneau vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 21% chance of winning, Quevilly a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Concarneau and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Concarneau and Quevilly in?
Concarneau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Concarneau's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
21%
4.85
22%
4.46
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Concarneau xG
Total xG
3.37
2.13
Quevilly xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
12%
8.43
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
2%
40.87
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Concarneau and 2.13 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Concarneau come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 7D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.00 PPG from 32 outings (6W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Concarneau on 1.06 PPG, Quevilly on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Concarneau's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (3W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Concarneau are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 6W 14D 12L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.00 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
1
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 1, Quevilly have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Concarneau 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Quevilly?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 56%, Quevilly 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Concarneau) and 62% (Quevilly). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 31%; Concarneau have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Concarneau's games and 62% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Concarneau's matches and 62% of Quevilly's.
Do Concarneau and Quevilly tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Concarneau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau and Quevilly finished level at 0-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.24 xG and Quevilly 2.13 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Concarneau fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Quevilly landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.95 / defence 1.50 against Quevilly attack 1.21 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 21% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 57%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 44%, Quevilly 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 1.06 PPG, Quevilly 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.