Rodez 2-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Auxerre at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Auxerre's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.60 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Auxerre have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Rodez's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Auxerre winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Auxerre have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 59% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 48% | Auxerre 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.82 xG and Auxerre 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.347 / defence 1.145 | Auxerre attack 1.152 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.193. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Rodez games / 32 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 33%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Rodez 1.82 / Auxerre 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.347 / def 1.145 | Auxerre attack 1.152 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Rodez (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Auxerre xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Auxerre kick off?
Rodez vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Auxerre?
Rodez 2 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Rodez vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Auxerre part of?
Rodez vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 43% chance of winning, Auxerre a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rodez and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Rodez and Auxerre in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.35) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.09
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.39
1.57
Auxerre xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Rodez and 1.57 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez come into this having played 69 games, going 22W 24D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.39 PPG from 69 outings (25W 21D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.30 PPG, Auxerre on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rodez's home form reads 11W 13D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 22W 24D 23L in their last 69 games (1.30 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 23L in their last 69 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Auxerre away?
Rodez's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.35 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
0
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Rodez 2-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 65%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rodez's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rodez's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Auxerre tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.82 xG and Auxerre 1.57 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.35 / defence 1.15 against Auxerre attack 1.15 / defence 1.16, drawn from 69/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 43% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 33%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 48%, Auxerre 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.30 PPG, Auxerre 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.