PAU 4-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 34%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAU vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 8 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Rodez are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 42% versus Rodez 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 42% | Rodez 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.96 xG and Rodez 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.008 / defence 1.020 | Rodez attack 0.876 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.062. Data: 19 PAU games / 19 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 32% | Rodez 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Rodez 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Rodez 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 32% | Rodez 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG PAU 0.96 / Rodez 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.008 / def 1.020 | Rodez attack 0.876 / def 0.986 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rodez xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Rodez kick off?
PAU vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Rodez?
PAU 4 - 0 Rodez.
Where is PAU vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Rodez part of?
PAU vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both PAU and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are PAU and Rodez in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.88x) against PAU's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
PAU xG
Total xG
1.91
0.95
Rodez xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for PAU and 0.95 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 3D 9L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for PAU against 1.42 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.05 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Rodez in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Rodez away?
PAU's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.90 PPG; Rodez away: 1.40 PPG.
Have PAU or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rodez in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Rodez have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Rodez 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for PAU and 30% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rodez in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 40% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of PAU's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Rodez tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rodez in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Rodez 4-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.96 xG and Rodez 0.95 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Rodez attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 32% | Rodez 34%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 42%, Rodez 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.26 PPG, Rodez 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.