PAU 1-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 6W 1D 2L at Stade Nouste Camp — 2.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PAU, 1.00 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Quevilly — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 41% versus Quevilly 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 35% | Quevilly 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.40 xG and Quevilly 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.059 / defence 0.908 | Quevilly attack 0.843 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 PAU games / 17 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 20%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Quevilly 5.00. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 33% | Quevilly 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG PAU 1.40 / Quevilly 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.059 / def 0.908 | Quevilly attack 0.843 / def 1.391 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: PAU (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Quevilly xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Quevilly kick off?
PAU vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Quevilly?
PAU 1 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is PAU vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Quevilly part of?
PAU vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 53% chance of winning, Quevilly a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAU and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Quevilly in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAU's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.84x) against PAU's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.63
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PAU xG
Total xG
2.14
0.74
Quevilly xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PAU and 0.74 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, PAU have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 7W 3D 7L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for PAU against 1.18 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAU have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.94 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: PAU have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Quevilly in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Quevilly away?
PAU's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 2.11 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.22 PPG.
Have PAU or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Quevilly in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Quevilly have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 33%, Quevilly 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for PAU and 44% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Quevilly in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAU's recent matches and 56% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of PAU's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Quevilly tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat PAU 1-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.40 xG and Quevilly 0.74 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Quevilly attack 0.84 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 20%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 35%, Quevilly 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.41 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.