Dunkerque 0-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 47%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dunkerque vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Annecy meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
Annecy have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Dunkerque's favour (2.40 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Annecy and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 41% versus Annecy 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 45% | Annecy 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.868 / defence 1.200 | Annecy attack 1.202 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Annecy have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Dunkerque games / 67 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 27% | Annecy 47%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 2.13. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 30% | Annecy 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 27% | Annecy 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dunkerque 1.12 / Annecy 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.868 / def 1.200 | Annecy attack 1.202 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Annecy kick off?
Dunkerque vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Dunkerque vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Annecy part of?
Dunkerque vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 26% chance of winning, Annecy a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dunkerque and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.87) and Annecy's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.20x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
26%
3.88
27%
3.73
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.71
1.59
Annecy xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.59 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 10W 7D 12L from 29 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 13L across 29 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.03 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 4W 2D 8L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.14 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Annecy have gone 7W 9D 13L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 29%, Annecy 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Dunkerque) and 64% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Annecy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 57% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Dunkerque's recent games and 64% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Annecy tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Annecy in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.59 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Annecy attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 26% | Draw 27% | Annecy 47%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Annecy 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.28 PPG, Annecy 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.