Laval 1-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Laval and Bastia meet at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.
Bastia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 1.30 for Bastia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Laval have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Bastia managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Laval winning.
The historical record gives Laval a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bastia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Bastia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 49% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.24 xG and Bastia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.948 / defence 1.299 | Bastia attack 0.932 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Data: 67 Laval games / 67 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 33% | Draw 29% | Bastia 38%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Bastia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 80% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 33% | Draw 29% | Bastia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Laval 1.24 / Bastia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.948 / def 1.299 | Bastia attack 0.932 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Bastia kick off?
Laval vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Bastia?
Laval 1 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Laval vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Bastia part of?
Laval vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 33% chance of winning, Bastia a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Laval and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Laval 3W | Draws 0 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Laval and Bastia in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.95) and Bastia's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.93x) against Laval's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.51
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Laval xG
Total xG
2.57
1.34
Bastia xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Laval and 1.34 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Laval have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 27W 13D 27L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 26W 16D 25L from 67 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 1.40 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (14W 7D 12L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 9D 16L from 33 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.21 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Bastia in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 27W 13D 27L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Bastia have gone 26W 16D 25L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Bastia away?
Laval's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.48 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Laval or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Laval won 0-3 on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Laval
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Laval 0-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Bastia?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 61%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Laval) and 39% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Laval's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Laval's recent games and 39% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Bastia tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bastia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Laval 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Laval 1-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.24 xG and Bastia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Bastia attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 33% | Draw 29% | Bastia 38%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 49%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.40 PPG, Bastia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.