Bastia 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Bastia welcome Dunkerque to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dunkerque's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bastia, 1 for Dunkerque and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 5–0 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 37% versus Dunkerque 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 43% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.96 xG and Dunkerque 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.818 / defence 1.078 | Dunkerque attack 0.977 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Data: 68 Bastia games / 30 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 42%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Dunkerque 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 20% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Bastia 0.96 / Dunkerque 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.818 / def 1.078 | Dunkerque attack 0.977 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dunkerque xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dunkerque kick off?
Bastia vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Bastia 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Bastia vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dunkerque part of?
Bastia vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 28% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bastia and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
28%
3.58
30%
3.30
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.19
1.24
Dunkerque xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Bastia and 1.24 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.23 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 6W 4D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.97 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.50 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
3
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bastia) and 50% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 43% of games; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bastia's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 31, as Bastia and Dunkerque drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.96 xG and Dunkerque 1.24 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Dunkerque attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 28% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 42%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.23 PPG, Dunkerque 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.