Clermont Foot vs Laval – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Laval meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Laval have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Clermont Foot, 0.90 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Laval and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 60% versus Laval 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | Laval 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.42 xG and Laval 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / defence 0.891 | Laval attack 0.986 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Clermont Foot games / 43 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 43% | Draw 27% | Laval 30%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | Laval 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 43% | Draw 27% | Laval 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Clermont Foot 1.42 / Laval 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / def 0.891 | Laval attack 0.986 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Laval xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Laval kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Laval is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Laval part of?
Clermont Foot vs Laval is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 43% chance of winning, Laval a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Clermont Foot and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Laval?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 3 | Laval 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Laval in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.81x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.99x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.65
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Laval xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.16 for Laval, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 43 games, going 9W 17D 17L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 0.93 PPG from 43 outings (8W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.93 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 0.95 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Laval in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Laval have gone 8W 16D 19L in their last 43 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Laval away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.14 PPG; Laval away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 3 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
0
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Laval?
From 5 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Laval have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Laval 3-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Laval?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Laval 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Clermont Foot) and 38% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 33% of games; Laval in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 48% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 38% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Laval tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Laval in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.