Nantes vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantes have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stade de la Beaujoire — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Nantes against 0.50 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 49% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 49% | Boulogne 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.84 xG and Boulogne 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.866 / defence 1.510 | Boulogne attack 0.678 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 4 Nantes games / 38 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 23% | Draw 32% | Boulogne 45%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Boulogne 2.22. Boulogne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boulogne are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Boulogne 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 23% | Draw 32% | Boulogne 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Nantes 0.84 / Boulogne 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.866 / def 1.510 | Boulogne attack 0.678 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Boulogne xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Boulogne kick off?
Nantes vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
Where is Nantes vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Boulogne part of?
Nantes vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 23% chance of winning, Boulogne a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nantes and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Boulogne in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.87x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.68x) against Nantes's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
23%
4.40
32%
3.10
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.12
1.28
Boulogne xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Nantes and 1.28 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 5W 9D 23L from 37 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 16L across 37 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Boulogne by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 3W 3D 12L from 18 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boulogne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.95 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 5W 9D 23L in their last 37 games (0.65 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.67 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.22 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Boulogne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 28% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 33%; Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Boulogne in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantes's recent matches and 39% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 28% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Boulogne tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.