Laval vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Francis Le Basser this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Dijon (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.78. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 1W 3D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dijon in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Laval 1W, Dijon 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Laval 89% and Dijon 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Laval 78% | Dijon 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.70 xG and Dijon 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.012 / defence 1.265 | Dijon attack 0.996 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Laval's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Laval games / 9 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 24% | Dijon 37%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Dijon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 24% | Dijon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Laval 1.70 / Dijon 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.012 / def 1.265 | Dijon attack 0.996 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Laval (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Dijon xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Dijon kick off?
Laval vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Dijon part of?
Laval vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Laval and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 2W.
What form are Laval and Dijon in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.01) and Dijon's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (1.00x) against Laval's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
39%
2.56
24%
4.23
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Laval xG
Total xG
3.36
1.66
Dijon xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Laval and 1.66 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Laval have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 3D 5L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dijon are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Laval.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Laval have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; Dijon in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Dijon in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Dijon away?
Dijon's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.00 PPG; Dijon away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 5-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Laval
0
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dijon?
From 3 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Dijon 3-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Laval, 100% for Dijon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Laval and 40% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Laval's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Laval's matches and 40% of Dijon's.
Do Laval and Dijon tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dijon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.