Annecy vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Annecy at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Sochaux at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sochaux stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Ligue 2 matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.25. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 1 for Sochaux and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–5 with Sochaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sochaux trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Annecy 50% | Sochaux 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 25% | Sochaux 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.13 xG and Sochaux 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.817 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Annecy games / 4 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 18%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Sochaux 5.56. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Sochaux's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Sochaux 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 47% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Annecy 1.13 / Sochaux 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.108 / def 0.817 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Sochaux xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Sochaux kick off?
Annecy vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Sochaux part of?
Annecy vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 47% chance of winning, Sochaux a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Annecy and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Sochaux?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are Annecy and Sochaux in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Sochaux (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
47%
2.14
35%
2.84
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.74
0.61
Sochaux xG
2.14
47%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Annecy and 0.61 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sochaux heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux in 0%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Sochaux in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Annecy or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sochaux in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Sochaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Sochaux 5-1 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Annecy 50% BTTS, Sochaux 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Annecy and 25% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sochaux in 75%; Sochaux in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Annecy's recent matches and 0% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Annecy's recent games and 25% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Sochaux tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.