Laval vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 0.90 PPG, Annecy 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Laval, 3 for Annecy and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Annecy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.012 / defence 1.265 | Annecy attack 0.971 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Laval games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 25% | Annecy 45%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 2.22. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 25% | Annecy 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Laval 1.28 / Annecy 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.012 / def 1.265 | Annecy attack 0.971 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Annecy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Annecy xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Record (8 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 3 | Annecy 3W.
What form are Laval and Annecy in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.01) and Annecy's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.34
25%
3.93
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Laval xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
Annecy xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Laval and 1.62 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 16D 19L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (19W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Laval — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 4W 9D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (11W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 16D 19L in their last 43 games (0.93 PPG), while Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.95 PPG; Annecy away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Laval) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 32%; Laval have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Laval's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Laval's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Annecy tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Annecy in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.