Laval vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Laval, 3 for Annecy and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 45% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 40% | Annecy 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.15 xG and Annecy 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.877 / defence 1.159 | Annecy attack 0.991 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Laval games / 38 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 30% | Annecy 42%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Annecy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 30% | Annecy 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Laval 1.15 / Annecy 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.877 / def 1.159 | Annecy attack 0.991 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Annecy xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 28% chance of winning, Annecy a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Record (8 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 3 | Annecy 3W.
What form are Laval and Annecy in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.88) and Annecy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.39
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Laval xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Annecy xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Laval and 1.44 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 14D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (17W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Laval — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 4W 7D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (9W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 14D 16L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 47%, Annecy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Laval) and 58% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 32%; Laval have failed to score in 47% of games; Annecy in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Laval's recent matches and 42% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Laval's recent games and 58% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Annecy tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Annecy in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.