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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Clermont Foot have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Guingamp.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.

It is worth noting that Clermont Foot have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Guingamp sit 11th on 40 points, 2 places and 3 points ahead of Clermont Foot in 13th.

Guingamp's home record this season stands at 6W 5D 6L. On the road, Clermont Foot's record stands at 4W 4D 9L this term.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Clermont Foot trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Clermont Foot 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Clermont Foot 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.22 xG and Clermont Foot 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Clermont Foot attack 1.010 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Clermont Foot games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Clermont Foot 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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