Boulogne 4-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Boulogne face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade de la Libération to face Boulogne in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Boulogne against 0.80 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Boulogne edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Boulogne 1–0 Amiens — a Boulogne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Boulogne — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Amiens — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 56% versus Amiens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 52% | Amiens 56%). Note also that Amiens surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Boulogne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.862 / defence 1.410 | Amiens attack 0.872 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Boulogne's defence rating of 1.410 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Boulogne's last 25 games and Amiens's last 59.
Result probabilities: Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.68 | Draw 3.47 | Amiens 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Boulogne's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Boulogne 60% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Boulogne 1.09 / Amiens 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.862 / def 1.410 | Amiens attack 0.872 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Amiens (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Boulogne vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Boulogne vs Amiens kick off?
Boulogne vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Amiens?
Boulogne 4 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Boulogne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Amiens part of?
Boulogne vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 27% chance of winning, Amiens a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Boulogne and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Boulogne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.87x) against Boulogne's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Boulogne's last 25 games and Amiens's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
27%
3.68
29%
3.47
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Amiens xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Boulogne vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.44 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boulogne come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Boulogne against 0.96 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Boulogne's home form reads 3W 1D 9L across their last 13 home games, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 2D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.19 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Boulogne (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Boulogne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Boulogne vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Boulogne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Amiens have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.77 PPG; Amiens away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Boulogne
0
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Boulogne vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Amiens?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Boulogne have won 2, Amiens have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Boulogne 4-2 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Amiens?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Amiens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Boulogne and 54% for Amiens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Boulogne vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Boulogne and Amiens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 54% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Boulogne and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Boulogne's matches and 54% of Amiens's.
Do Boulogne and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Boulogne's recent matches and 69% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boulogne cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Amiens 4-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Boulogne beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.86 / defence 1.41 against Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 52%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.11 PPG, Amiens 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 26
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →