Le Havre 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Paris FC at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Paris FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Le Havre have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Paris FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 34% | Paris FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.41 xG and Paris FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.194 / defence 0.697 | Paris FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Le Havre games / 59 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Le Havre 1.41 / Paris FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.194 / def 0.697 | Paris FC attack 0.913 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Paris FC xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris FC kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris FC part of?
Le Havre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 55% chance of winning, Paris FC a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Havre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 2 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in?
Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (1.19) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.64
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.08
0.67
Paris FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
4%
22.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.67 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 18D 15L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.59 PPG from 59 outings (26W 16D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.63 PPG, Paris FC on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.55 points per game from 29 outings (13W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 26W 16D 17L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris FC away?
Le Havre's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.62 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 41%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Le Havre and 38% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Paris FC in 34%; Le Havre have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Le Havre's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Le Havre's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.41 xG and Paris FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.19 / defence 0.70 against Paris FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 55% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 18%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 34%, Paris FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.63 PPG, Paris FC 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.