Amiens 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.00 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Amiens, 0 for Guingamp and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Guingamp 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.18 xG and Guingamp 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.022 / defence 0.981 | Guingamp attack 1.248 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Amiens games / 55 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Guingamp 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Amiens 1.18 / Guingamp 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.022 / def 0.981 | Guingamp attack 1.248 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Guingamp kick off?
Amiens vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Amiens 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Amiens vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Guingamp part of?
Amiens vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 36% chance of winning, Guingamp a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Amiens and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.02) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.60
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.38
1.20
Guingamp xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Amiens and 1.20 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 17W 20D 18L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 21W 18D 16L from 55 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.29 PPG, Guingamp on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 10W 9D 8L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 20D 18L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 18D 16L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Guingamp away?
Amiens's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.59 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Amiens or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Guingamp in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 37%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Amiens) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Amiens's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Guingamp tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Guingamp finished level at 1-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.18 xG and Guingamp 1.20 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Guingamp attack 1.25 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 37%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.29 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.