Saint Etienne 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 2.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Auxerre and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–5 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.43 xG and Auxerre 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.221 / defence 0.959 | Auxerre attack 1.187 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.086. Data: 65 Saint Etienne games / 27 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Saint Etienne 1.43 / Auxerre 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.221 / def 0.959 | Auxerre attack 1.187 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Auxerre xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre part of?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 41% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.61
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.67
1.24
Auxerre xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.24 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 65 games, going 27W 17D 21L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (22W 21D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.51 PPG, Auxerre on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.32 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 27W 17D 21L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 21D 22L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Auxerre away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.69 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Auxerre in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 41%, Auxerre 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Saint Etienne) and 56% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 66% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 56% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Auxerre tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.43 xG and Auxerre 1.24 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Auxerre attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 32%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Auxerre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.51 PPG, Auxerre 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.