Annecy 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.10 PPG versus Amiens's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Amiens 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 42% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.38 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.967 / defence 1.087 | Amiens attack 0.742 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Data: 48 Annecy games / 48 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | Amiens 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Annecy 1.38 / Amiens 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.967 / def 1.087 | Amiens attack 0.742 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Annecy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Amiens xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Amiens kick off?
Annecy vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Annecy 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Annecy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Amiens part of?
Annecy vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 49% chance of winning, Amiens a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Annecy and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Annecy and Amiens in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.97) and Amiens's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
Amiens xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Annecy and 0.87 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 13W 17D 18L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 21L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.17 PPG, Amiens on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Amiens's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.02 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 13W 17D 18L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Amiens away?
Annecy's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.61 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amiens in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Amiens?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Annecy) and 48% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Amiens in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 48% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 48% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Amiens tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Amiens in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 11, as Annecy and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Amiens 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Amiens attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 49% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.17 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.